PHILANTHROPIC INVESTING CLUB
WITH PAUL CONNOLLY
​​
NAV 31 January 2025: 97.86 Per Share. Gain 29.08% - SPX500 26.64%
​
What’s Moving and Shaking markets, Friday 7 February 2025
PERFORMANCE 29.08%(PTC) - 26.64%(SPX)
MARKET SENTIMENT RISK: WAIT
​
​
1. ASIA: Nudged higher overnight, the Yen finding a two month high against the USD, rate hikes coming
2. USA; Non-farm jobs reported 143,000 lower than the 165,000 expected, shrugged off so far by USA futures. I expect some volatility as the day moves on and investors evaluate the numbers.
3. OIL: Prices remain subdued with worries over consumption and the USA policy shift.
4. TESLA: down slightly in the pre, sales in China fell 11.5%, if this was any other car company the stock would have tanked. The outlook for EV's is poor. The Elon effect! Usually these things dont end well.
5. PINs; +20% in the pre, solid quarter, revenue up 18% and income of $1.9B, users growing 11%, 553M
6. AMZN: Portfolio Holding (CORE), revenue and earnings beat, AWS strong. Capital spending has a $100B run rate for 2025, but don't compare or confuse this with MSFT and GOOGL (both core holdings) this includes its distribution network cost. Its margins are at 13% which is the best ever.
7. ELF: falls another 25% on poor guidance, slighly below estimates. This traded at $218 in June 24, now $66.5. A perfect storm for this company considering it sources most of its products from Mexico.
8. SOFTBANK: is close to its $40B investment in OpenAI which is currently values at $260B, yes thats right Billion, taking the valuation to 300B. Reminds me of the Gold Rush, where the ones who got rich where the people selling the picks and shovels. NVDA, AVGO (Port/Holdings CORE) and ARM anyone?
9. BONDS: Are moving higher today, we would be buyers of the 10yr if the rate gets above 5%.
If you would like to know before we make a trade or receive this moving and shaking report to your email, then please go to our website and subscribe. Aletrnatively if you would like us to manage some funds for you completely free of charge please go to Etoros copy trade feature. Cancel at any time.
10. HON; currently sits on our watch list after yesterdays announcement to split in to 3 companies, rises 1% in the pre, Deutsche Bank upgrade to a buy with a $260 PT, 24% above yesterday close.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
Fear, anger, and hatred essentially come from a lack of perspective as to what life is all about.
​
Sign up for my Moving and Shaking Markets email newsletter for free and receive weekly and monthly performance reports direct to your email.
​
As a subscriber to the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly, you will receive a trade alert before Paul and the Club makes a trade and many other benefits.
Want Paul to manage some funds for you directly? Go to ETORO, this service is completely free and you can cancel at any time. etoro.com/people/paulcon33
__________________________________________________________________________________
​
​
What’s Moving and Shaking markets, Thursday 6 February 2025
PERFORMANCE 29.08%(PTC) - 26.64%(SPX)
MARKET SENTIMENT RISK: WAIT
​
1. UK: BoE cuts rates 4.5% on sluggish economic growth, despite persistent inflation. Markets price in a 80 points reduction this year. I expect this to be revised to the down side, GBPUSD moves against the £
2. USD: Yields, last week the financial news (& experts) where convinced the 10yr would go to 5.5%, we are seeing yields close to month lows despite no clear indication of tariff consequences and FED plans
3. ASAI: Japan however, yields moving up, following hawkish comments from the BoJ, Yen stronger.
4. OIL: Prices rebound after the Saudi raises prices. This is good for us given we are overweight energy.
5. HON: is on our watch list as we have been looking for an entry position for some time. Today might be the day after falling more than 3%, after announcing it would split in to 3 companies. Remember what this did to GE? It did miss on earnings forecasts giving $10.10-$10.5, the market wanting $10.92
6. If you would like to know before we make a trade or receive this moving and shaking report to your email, then please go to our website and subscribe. Aletrnatively if you would like us to manage some funds for you completely free of charge please go to Etoros copy trade feature. Cancel at any time.
7. LLY: Portfolio Holding, down 1% in the pre, beats earnings but misses revenue for 4th quarter, Zebound and Munjaro sales impressed but at a lower price point. LLY pre-released so no surprise. It does have competition from NONOF that reported yesterday. LLY is still a conviction buy for us.
8. RBLX: Down 18% in the pre, but off the lows and rising, missed on most metrics, this has tripped in price since May 24. Buying in opportunity if you like it? $1.36B is a record quarter but this company is still yet to make a profit but valued at $45B. It doesn't fit our model.. yet... but the growth is impressive.
9. GOLD: Barrick has been on the rise since mid December, having a breather in the pre, after its 3% rise yesterday, despite announcing a 23% growth in proven gold mineral reserves. Benefiting from uncertainty around Tariffs.
10. AVGO/NVDA: Both port/hold, both core, shaking off the DeepSeek "scare", AVGO rummored to be winner of Skyworks lossing the sole source Apple business (sky down 20%). NVDA up 2% in the pre
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
Before we engineer the world, the most important engineering that needs to happen is that you engineer yourself the way you want yourself to be. ​​​​​​
​
Sign up for my Moving and Shaking Markets email newsletter for free and receive weekly and monthly performance reports direct to your email.
​
As a subscriber to the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly, you will receive a trade alert before Paul and the Club makes a trade and many other benefits.
Want Paul to manage some funds for you directly? Go to ETORO, this service is completely free and you can cancel at any time. etoro.com/people/paulcon33
_______________________________________________________________________________________
​
What’s Moving and Shaking markets, Wednesday 5 February 2025
PERFORMANCE 29.08%(PTC) - 26.64%(SPX)
MARKET SENTIMENT RISK: WAIT
​
1. ASIA: Lots of uncertainty today in Asia given US futures declining on the back of GOOGL pull back.
2. TRUMP: foreign policy in relation president Trumps comments about Gazza has left the world somewhat confused, expensive right? Where is the money coming from? What is the legal position?
3. YEN: surged and bond yields rose as expectations on of tightening by the BoJ. JPY strong against USD
4. GOLD: Hits a record of $2848 due to a weaker USD, giving much needed support to Barrick (GOLD)
5. OIL: dipped slightly amid China tariff concerns on US imports and renewed pressure on Iran exports
6. USA: companies created 183.000 jobs last month, up from December and higher than expectations
7. GOOGL: down big in the pre. Announcing spending $75B for cloud data centre in 2025, who will be the beneficiary of this? NVDA/AVGO both portfolio holdings (CORE) DeepSeek not phasing GOOGL.
8. AMD: Down 9.5 in the pre. This company can do no right as its always compared to NVDA, market looking for AI news, doesn't care about PC and Server. Trades at 44 x forward earnings, same as NVDA
9. APPLE: Trading sideways since 31 Jan. Now China to investigate it for App Store fees, just another tax on USA companies, taking the lead from Europe, UK and even the justice department. Most of the MAG7 stocks are plugging the gaps in the balance sheet in these countries. TRUMP, do something!
10. DIS: portfolio Holding, gives a solid quarter but cant get traction in the pre, we need to see this close above $114 to brake its resistance level & head to previous high of $123, not seen for over a year
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
In mediocrity, there is comfort, but no joy. In going beyond your limits, there is joy, but maybe no comfort. You have to choose.
​
Sign up for my Moving and Shaking Markets email newsletter for free and receive weekly and monthly performance reports direct to your email.
​
As a subscriber to the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly, you will receive a trade alert before Paul and the Club makes a trade and many other benefits.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
​
What’s Moving and Shaking markets, Tuesday 4 February 2025
PERFORMANCE 29.08%(PTC) - 26.64%(SPX)
MARKET SENTIMENT RISK: WAIT
​
1. TARIFFS: What a roller-coaster yesterday, if you read yesterdays M&S, I recommended not acting to the news. I hope you didn't sell at the open? Their will be many days like this with the new administration and I recommend not chasing anything up or down. Know why you own what you do.
2. CHINA: Takes a different approach than Canada & Mexico, hitting back with its own Tariffs of 15% on coal & LNG and 10% on crude oil, agricultural machinery and pickup trucks. All the things it needs the most and may struggle to buy in other markets. CAT and DE could be ones to watch if implemented
3. GOLD: hits a new high on uncertainty (as usual). This pulled up struggling portfolio holding GOLD.
4. PFE: Portfolio Holding, up less than 1% in the pre despite smashing earnings by 15c reporting 63c and revenue of $17.76B ($17.36 expected). Trading at forward earnings of 8.86 paying a 6.6% dividend.
5. MRK: Port/Hold, (staying with pharma) is down big in the pre, 8.36%, gives light guidance of $8.88-$9.03, the market wanted $9.51 and revenue of $64.1-$65.6 ($70.95 expected). We would let the dust settle and listen to the call before making any moves. This may be an over reaction.
6. F: gets a little bounce in the pre on Canadian tariff pause, currently trading at forward earnings of 5.56 and paying a dividend of 6%. I think this one is less exposed to Tariffs than GM.
7. PAYPAL: Port/Hold, getting killed in the pre despite beating earnings and buying back shares of 6B in 24. Revenue up 4% Q4 & 7% FY24, non-GAAP EPS up 5% Q4 & 21% FY24 and a new buyback of $15B.
8. PLTR: Up 23% in the pre, seems unstoppable. $2.7B revenue, for a company thats worth $190B, it doubled in value since October. I'm not saying I dont like PLTR but I dont like its multiples. I hope it can continue to grow its revenue & more importantly its EPS & live up to the hype. Reversion to the Mean
9. CRM: Port/Hold, up 2% in the pre, Bloomberg says is cutting jobs. Is its AI that good that it can reduce its own workforce? Trading CRM has been extremely profitable over the past few years. If you would like to know when we make a trade then please subscribe at our website or follow us on Etoro.
10. PEP: Falls by more than 2% in the pre as revenue misses and demand falls. We don't own any of the soda stocks given the worlds growing appetite for healthier lifestyle choices. KO best in class.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
When you were a child, you were bursting with joy and someone had to make you miserable. Today, someone or something has to make you happy. Time to go back from the muddle of the mind to the exuberance of life.
​​​​​​
​
Sign up for my Moving and Shaking Markets email newsletter for free and receive weekly and monthly performance reports direct to your email.
​
As a subscriber to the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly, you will receive a trade alert before Paul and the Club makes a trade and many other benefits.
Want Paul to manage some funds for you directly? Go to ETORO, this service is completely free and you can cancel at any time. etoro.com/people/paulcon33
_______________________________________________________________________________________​
​
What’s Moving and Shaking markets, Monday 3 February 2025
PERFORMANCE 29.08%(PTC) - 26.64%(SPX)
MARKET SENTIMENT RISK: WAIT
​
1. TARIFFS; China 10%, Mexico & Canada 25%, As promised the tariff war begins, I would like to tell you how its going to work out, but, I don't know and anyone who thinks they do is guessing. What I do know is that this does present a buying opportunity in the right stocks. USD/ CNY & USD/MXN, but the USD/CAD is the clear loser here. Reports suggest as much as 80% of Canadian imports go to the USA.
2. TRANSITORY: Portfolio's will be down today & most of you wont like it. It will effect most if not all of your positions, but, for those who like the smaller companies, lots of hype & volume and importantly with high Betas, (eg. MSTR) you will feel it the most. Remember why you bought the stock and not sell just because it is going down. If I was a retail trader I would leave my phone home & take the day off.
3. EUROPE: STOX600 is down 1.6% as Trumps warns them and the UK that they are next, car manufactures such as Volkswagen -7%, BMW -4% and parts supplier Valeo -8.6%. Autos featured big on his campaign promises and I think the message is finally getting across. GM in the USA down -7.5%
4. COSTCO: Reached a tentative agreement with Teamsters, avoiding strike action over the weekend & is down less than 1% in the pre, compared to the broader markets -1.5% fall. looking for $873 to buy.
5. PTC: Today we release our monthly performance, we continue to out-perform our benchmark and investors continue to profit from our stewardship by a margin of 9% over the past 12 months. If you would like to benefit from our strategy, visit us at Etoro or by subscribing for free on our website
6. TSN: Taking the other side of the Tariff trade, up 4% after smashing estimates by 24c at $1.14, if you believe Tariffs are here to stay these types of companies will be winners in Trumps new MEGA policies.
7. TESLA: -4% in the pre, we still think Tesla is expensive by most metrics & are struggling to reconcile Trumps policies and Teslas future. Don't forget this company rose 100% after the election despite falling sales and a push back against green policies. That said, only a fool would bet against Elon
8. AVGO: Portfolio/Holding (core) is -3% in the pre, if the fall continues, it may not find support until $185.5, however, if it bounces, we could see $250, currently trading ay $215. We are long AVGO.
9. CMG. Port/Hold, -3.26% in the pre at $56.45. We took profits on this at $66.07, at $53.85 we would consider buying back those shares. Down due to tariffs on Avocados that CMG already charges for? Its exactly this type of irrational sell offs new traders need to understand and learn to take advantage of.
10. Visa&Mastercard: Both Port/Hold, both down in the Pre, we took some profits on V on Friday, both have analyst upgrades today, both are expensive yes but both deserve a place in a balanced portfolio.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
Education is like food. Food only works for those who eat it. Education only works for those who do it.
Sign up for my Moving and Shaking Markets email newsletter for free and receive weekly and monthly performance reports direct to your email.
​
As a subscriber to the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly, you will receive a trade alert before Paul and the Club makes a trade and many other benefits.
Want Paul to manage some funds for you directly? Go to ETORO, this service is completely free and you can cancel at any time. etoro.com/people/paulcon33
The above investing club information is subject to our terms and conditions and PRIVACY POLICY, together with our DISCLAIMER. no fiduciary obligation or duty exists, or is created, by virtue of your receipt of any information provided in connection with the Parallel Tangent Capital Philanthropic Investing Club with Paul Connolly. no specific outcome or profit is guaranteed.